Oh argh. I know meteorology is an imprecise science but how can NOAA go from This (yesterday's forecast for today):
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS...THEN 1 TO 2 FT IN
to This (today's forecast for today):
E WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING S LATE. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
Bummer bummer bummer. I completely rearranged the distance paddle I was leading to find a Yellow Submarine in Coney Island Creek (link fixed, I hope), which involves a roughly 6-mile stretch where you are simply not allowed to land for anything short of a trip-ending medical emergency, to a more flexible Paerdegat to Gerritson Creek trip.
Now conditions are perfect.